Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-10-26?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 91¢ · $28K held · ends Oct 26

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$27.6K

Combined PnL

$301.54

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$26.9K

Total Shares29,691

Combined PnL+$270.26

Yes1 trader

Total Value$681.28

Total Shares7,171

Combined PnL+$31.28

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 89¢	$10.6K	$10.8K	+$178.42	50% 2208-2217 (4425)
CA Cannae	Noavg 89.8¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$46.05	53% 15234-13442 (28676)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 90¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$20	53% 5255-4588 (9843)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 91¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$0	68% 2382-1117 (3499)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 89.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$9.64	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 90.1¢	$924.28	$928.38	+$4.1	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 89.7¢	$807	$814.5	+$7.5	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
0X 0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$650	$681.28	+$31.28	23% 52-177 (229)
0xheavy888	Noavg 89.5¢	$358	$362	+$4	56% 6695-5367 (12062)
LO lonmi2511	Noavg 90¢	$100	$100.55	+$0.56	64% 993-568 (1561)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$10,586.33

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$178.42

Record

50%

2208-2217 (4425)

Cannae

Invested

$6,149.78

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$46.05

Record

53%

15234-13442 (28676)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$3,600

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$20

Record

53%

5255-4588 (9843)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,730

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

2382-1117 (3499)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,434.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$9.64

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$924.28

Value

$928.38

PnL

+$4.1

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$807

Value

$814.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR

Yes

Invested

$650

Value

$681.28

PnL

+$31.28

Record

23%

52-177 (229)

0xheavy888

Invested

$358

Value

$362

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

6695-5367 (12062)

lonmi2511

Invested

$100

Value

$100.55

PnL

+$0.56

Record

64%

993-568 (1561)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.