CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Score
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.3K
$4.97
54.1¢ → 54¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $456.2 | $446.28 | -$9.92 | 49% 17082-17463 (34545) |
 RN1 | Noavg 53¢ | $328.26 | $343.74 | +$15.48 | 54% 50820-42775 (93595) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 55¢ | $268.29 | $270.73 | +$2.44 | 50% 9301-9249 (18550) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 54.8¢ | $164.97 | $161.04 | -$3.94 | 60% 39473-26004 (65477) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $29.83 | $30.1 | +$0.27 | 58% 37023-26943 (63966) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $12.4 | $12.98 | +$0.58 | 64% 973-550 (1523) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $6.28 | $6.34 | +$0.06 | 50% 10665-10792 (21457) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $1.08 | $1.07 | -$0.01 | 55% 2064-1680 (3744) |
Invested
$456.2
Value
$446.28
PnL
-$9.92
Record
49%
17082-17463 (34545)
RN1Invested
$328.26
Value
$343.74
PnL
+$15.48
Record
54%
50820-42775 (93595)
Invested
$268.29
Value
$270.73
PnL
+$2.44
Record
50%
9301-9249 (18550)
Invested
$164.97
Value
$161.04
PnL
-$3.94
Record
60%
39473-26004 (65477)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$29.83
Value
$30.1
PnL
+$0.27
Record
58%
37023-26943 (63966)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$12.98
PnL
+$0.58
Record
64%
973-550 (1523)
Invested
$6.28
Value
$6.34
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
10665-10792 (21457)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.07
PnL
-$0.01
Record
55%
2064-1680 (3744)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.