Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 71¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 26

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$172.23

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 70.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares15,063

Combined PnL-$175.01

No2 traders

Total Value$65.32

Total Shares225

Combined PnL+$2.78

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO notgoodluck	Yesavg 71.7¢	$10.7K	$10.6K	-$174.69	62% 201-125 (326)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 28.3¢	$46.13	$62.13	+$2.72	57% 1670-1266 (2936)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$41.18	$40.89	-$0.29	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.55	-$0.03	57% 34-26 (60)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$3.08	$3.19	+$0.05	53% 13639-12083 (25722)

notgoodluck

Yes

Invested

$10,749.93

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$174.69

Record

62%

201-125 (326)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$46.13

Value

$62.13

PnL

+$2.72

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.18

Value

$40.89

PnL

-$0.29

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

PLACEYOURBETS123<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

34-26 (60)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

13639-12083 (25722)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.