Will WKS Slask Wroclaw vs. Wieczysta Krakow end in a draw?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 86¢ · $407 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$406.71
-$1.02
86.5¢ → 86¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 87¢ | $368.08 | $363.85 | -$4.23 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $30.96 | $30.96 | +$1.08 | 57% 1457-1081 (2538) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $7.35 | $8.6 | +$1.25 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $18.2 | $3.31 | +$0.88 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
Invested
$368.08
Value
$363.85
PnL
-$4.23
Record
52%
16269-14809 (31078)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$30.96
Value
$30.96
PnL
+$1.08
Record
57%
1457-1081 (2538)
Invested
$7.35
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$1.25
Record
55%
4838-4027 (8865)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$18.2
Value
$3.31
PnL
+$0.88
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.