Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Legia Warszawa win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 27¢ · $330 held · ended Oct 25

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$329.78

Combined PnL

$0.31

Smart Money Entry

30.6¢ → 26.5¢

-13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$232.54

Total Shares767

Combined PnL-$1.64

No4 traders

Total Value$97.24

Total Shares139

Combined PnL+$1.95

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 35.5¢	$181.45	$143.4	-$1.48	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$64.96	$66.64	+$1.68	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.6¢	$54.65	$53.75	-$0.9	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 64.8¢	$24.37	$24.42	+$0.05	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$19.95	$19.95	+$0	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$14.71	$15.44	+$0.74	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.25	+$0.1	55% 4880-4051 (8931)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 62.4¢	$2.81	$2.93	+$0.12	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.45

Value

$143.4

PnL

-$1.48

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$64.96

Value

$66.64

PnL

+$1.68

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.65

Value

$53.75

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

foooool<$100

Invested

$24.37

Value

$24.42

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.95

Value

$19.95

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.71

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$0.74

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.12

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.