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RN1UnderOver
HRTradingCTR<$100OverOverUnderUnder
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs. Wisla Plock: O/U 1.5
Resolved Under. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$203.3
Combined PnL
-$999.16
Smart Money Signal
Over
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over0%
Under100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Under3 traders
Total Value$173.3
Total Shares173
Combined PnL+$56.57
Over2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares4,793
Combined PnL$-1.1K
Under — 60%Over — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RN1 | Underavg 78.3¢ | $116.73 | $173.3 | +$56.57 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 32.1¢ | $198.86 | $30 | -$168.86 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 32.1¢ | $182.66 | — | -$182.66 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54¢ | $16.2 | $30 | +$13.8 | |
HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 24¢ | $3.91 | — | -$3.91 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR | Overavg 22¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 72% 1847-728 (2575) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 78.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16365-14925 (31290) |
RN1Invested
$116.73
Value
$173.3
PnL
+$56.57
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
FO
fooooolARB<$100Invested
$198.86
Value
$30
PnL
-$168.86
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
Both legs:
Over$182.6632.1¢-$182.66
Under$16.254¢+$13.8
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.91
Value
—
PnL
-$3.91
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
0X
0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTRInvested
$1,051.82
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
72%
1847-728 (2575)
UP
UpTheBlues<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
GO
GoalLineGhost<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16365-14925 (31290)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb7305c80...bbb305
Slug
pol-jag-plo-2026-10-25-total-1pt5