Will Jagiellonia Bialystok win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 69¢ · $756 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$756.19
$47.67
54.8¢ → 68.5¢
+25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 53¢ | $210.48 | $257.2 | +$46.72 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $214.82 | $203.53 | -$11.29 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49¢ | $165.47 | $155.48 | -$9.99 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.5¢ | $49.35 | $48.04 | -$1.3 | |
FO foooool | Noavg 54.3¢ | $150 | $149.09 | -$0.91 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $85.19 | $85.19 | -$0 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $46.67 | $49.42 | +$2.75 | 55% 4845-4030 (8875) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $11.62 | $10.69 | -$0.93 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $1.04 | $1.08 | +$0.04 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
Invested
$210.48
Value
$257.2
PnL
+$46.72
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$214.82
Value
$203.53
PnL
-$11.29
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
$149.09
PnL
-$0.91
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$85.19
Value
$85.19
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
Invested
$46.67
Value
$49.42
PnL
+$2.75
Record
55%
4845-4030 (8875)
Invested
$11.62
Value
$10.69
PnL
-$0.93
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.08
PnL
+$0.04
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.