Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 14¢ · $963 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$962.73
-$117.69
44.1¢ → 13.5¢
-69% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
181h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RememberAmalek | Noavg 46.9¢ | $230.82 | $405 | +$174.18 | 56% 954-753 (1707) |
 GayPride | Noavg 43¢ | $154.16 | $340.36 | +$186.2 | 50% 350-353 (703) |
 eCashCTR | Yesavg 43.1¢ | $512.36 | $154.5 | -$328.14 | 68% 319-150 (469) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Yesavg 46.9¢ | $200.58 | $57.8 | -$142.79 | 60% 975-652 (1627) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR | Yesavg 44.1¢ | $111.56 | $5.07 | -$7.15 | 56% 302-233 (535) |
RememberAmalekInvested
$230.82
Value
$405
PnL
+$174.18
Record
56%
954-753 (1707)
GayPrideInvested
$154.16
Value
$340.36
PnL
+$186.2
Record
50%
350-353 (703)
eCashCTRInvested
$512.36
Value
$154.5
PnL
-$328.14
Record
68%
319-150 (469)
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$200.58
Value
$57.8
PnL
-$142.79
Record
60%
975-652 (1627)
Invested
$111.56
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$7.15
Record
56%
302-233 (535)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.