Spread: Sport Boys Association (-1.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FC Cajamarca (20%) · FC Cajamarca at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
FC Cajamarca
5
FC Cajamarca 20%
$1.2K
-$9.87
Research grade
NeutralFC Cajamarca at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on FC Cajamarca. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saber-greed | FC Cajamarcaavg 66.3¢ | $749.96 | $746.23 | -$3.73 | 59% 2259-1573 (3832) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Sport Boys Associationavg 36.5¢ | $219 | $204 | -$6 | 58% 31536-22821 (54357) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Sport Boys Associationavg 35¢ | $124.23 | $120.69 | +$1.77 | 47% 1966-2195 (4161) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Sport Boys Associationavg 34.7¢ | $98.13 | $96.22 | -$1.91 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Sport Boys Associationavg 34¢ | $18.36 | $18.36 | +$0 | 58% 1429-1045 (2474) |
Invested
$749.96
Value
$746.23
PnL
-$3.73
Record
59%
2259-1573 (3832)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$219
Value
$204
PnL
-$6
Record
58%
31536-22821 (54357)
Invested
$124.23
Value
$120.69
PnL
+$1.77
Record
47%
1966-2195 (4161)
Invested
$98.13
Value
$96.22
PnL
-$1.91
Record
54%
13750-11556 (25306)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$18.36
Value
$18.36
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
1429-1045 (2474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.