Will Sport Boys Association vs. FC Cajamarca end in a draw?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 81¢ · $100 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$100.38
$3.64
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $65.34 | $64.43 | -$0.91 | 50% 7903-7970 (15873) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $15.64 | $18.19 | +$2.55 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.75 | $17.75 | +$2 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.