Spread: Club Alianza Lima (-1.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CD Moquegua (60%) · CD Moquegua at 70¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Club Alianza Lima31¢CD Moquegua69¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CD Moquegua

Consensus Traders

CD Moquegua 60%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$5.4

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 69.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCD Moquegua at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Moquegua

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Club Alianza Lima31%

CD Moquegua70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Moquegua3 traders

Total Value$882.55

Total Shares1,319

Combined PnL-$22.08

Club Alianza Lima2 traders

Total Value$393.86

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL+$16.69

CD Moquegua — 60%Club Alianza Lima — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	CD Moqueguaavg 66.3¢	$891.6	$869.46	-$22.14	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
VeryLucky888CTR	Club Alianza Limaavg 32.9¢	$313.02	$227.52	+$14.34	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Club Alianza Limaavg 35¢	$164	$166.34	+$2.34	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
HRTrading<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 65¢	$10.32	$10.52	+$0.2	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
SN SnakeBall<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 68¢	$2.72	$2.58	-$0.14	50% 8893-8828 (17721)

UpTheBlues

CD Moquegua

Invested

$891.6

Value

$869.46

PnL

-$22.14

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

VeryLucky888CTR

Club Alianza Lima

Invested

$313.02

Value

$227.52

PnL

+$14.34

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Club Alianza Lima

Invested

$164

Value

$166.34

PnL

+$2.34

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

HRTrading<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$10.32

Value

$10.52

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

SnakeBall<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$2.72

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Research grade

NeutralCD Moquegua at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

CD Moquegua

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Moquegua wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.