Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 40¢ · $79 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$78.8
-$11.13
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $70.06 | $67.8 | -$2.26 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 38.6¢ | $563.82 | $5.74 | -$9.01 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $5.13 | $5.27 | +$0.14 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.