Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CD Garcilaso win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 20¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes81¢No19¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$100.29

Smart Money Entry

37.4¢ → 19.5¢

-48% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,339

Combined PnL-$89.28

Yes3 traders

Total Value$891.33

Total Shares1,460

Combined PnL-$11.01

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 38.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$70.56	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
SA Saber-greed	Yesavg 61.7¢	$892.98	$882.16	-$10.82	59% 2327-1610 (3937)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 37.4¢	$125.82	$103.88	-$31.36	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
└ No leg	Noavg 37.4¢	$84.87	$54.48	-$30.39
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$40.95	$49.4	-$0.97
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 22.8¢	$67.81	$63.96	-$18.72	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$6.61	$6.51	-$0.1	63% 1463-877 (2340)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 78.6¢	$2.75	$2.66	-$0.09	56% 1868-1468 (3336)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,180.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$70.56

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

Saber-greed

Yes

Invested

$892.98

Value

$882.16

PnL

-$10.82

Record

59%

2327-1610 (3937)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$125.82

Value

$103.88

PnL

-$31.36

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

Both legs:

No$84.8737.4¢-$30.39

Yes$40.9563¢-$0.97

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$67.81

Value

$63.96

PnL

-$18.72

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.61

Value

$6.51

PnL

-$0.1

Record

63%

1463-877 (2340)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.09

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.