Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 44¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.8K
-$28.03
43¢ → 43.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saber-greed | Noavg 57¢ | $958.81 | $975.62 | +$16.8 | 59% 2263-1576 (3839) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $876.98 | $851.04 | -$25.94 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $388.83 | $379.88 | -$8.96 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $368.23 | $359.67 | -$8.55 | 50% 7759-7812 (15571) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 42.3¢ | $201.85 | $200.47 | -$1.39 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
Invested
$958.81
Value
$975.62
PnL
+$16.8
Record
59%
2263-1576 (3839)
Invested
$876.98
Value
$851.04
PnL
-$25.94
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$388.83
Value
$379.88
PnL
-$8.96
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$368.23
Value
$359.67
PnL
-$8.55
Record
50%
7759-7812 (15571)
Invested
$201.85
Value
$200.47
PnL
-$1.39
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.