Will CD Comerciantes Unidos win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 69¢ · $717 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$717.26
$1.45
69.5¢ → 69¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $417 | $407.1 | -$3 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $160.61 | $165.96 | +$5.35 | 59% 2263-1576 (3839) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 69.4¢ | $145.11 | $144.21 | -$0.9 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.