Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.2K
$46.69
90.6¢ → 96.1¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
570h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Noavg 90.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | +$56.92 | 55% 402-328 (730) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer | Noavg 89¢ | $8.9 | $151.76 | +$11.41 | 50% 507-498 (1005) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $27.05 | $9.59 | -$17.46 | 74% 2499-895 (3394) |
JO jocpoliticCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $2.9 | $1.67 | -$3.86 | 37% 55-93 (148) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.07 | $0.07 | -$0.32 | 42% 1535-2102 (3637) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$1,072.39
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$56.92
Record
55%
402-328 (730)
GenaTheBondKilIerInvested
$8.9
Value
$151.76
PnL
+$11.41
Record
50%
507-498 (1005)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$27.05
Value
$9.59
PnL
-$17.46
Record
74%
2499-895 (3394)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$1.67
PnL
-$3.86
Record
37%
55-93 (148)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.32
Record
42%
1535-2102 (3637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.