Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 84¢ · $962 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$961.97
$36.36
54.1¢ → 84¢
+55% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
59h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR Arman2 | Yesavg 48.3¢ | $200 | $387.65 | +$49.82 | 55% 284-229 (513) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 64.3¢ | $552.61 | $314.56 | -$73.2 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 64.3¢ | $202.18 | $234.34 | -$27.53 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 38.3¢ | $120.37 | $80.21 | -$45.67 | |
 Porx | Yesavg 63¢ | $195.3 | $189.1 | -$17.05 | 66% 1429-742 (2171) |
 Relaccsed<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $63 | $61 | +$0.5 | 56% 1140-912 (2052) |
 Optimus-CTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $3.33 | $7.18 | +$2.71 | 61% 1184-749 (1933) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $2.12 | $2.49 | +$0.38 | 64% 13150-7530 (20680) |
Invested
$200
Value
$387.65
PnL
+$49.82
Record
55%
284-229 (513)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$552.61
Value
$314.56
PnL
-$73.2
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Both legs:
PorxInvested
$195.3
Value
$189.1
PnL
-$17.05
Record
66%
1429-742 (2171)
Relaccsed<$100Invested
$63
Value
$61
PnL
+$0.5
Record
56%
1140-912 (2052)
Optimus-CTR<$100Invested
$3.33
Value
$7.18
PnL
+$2.71
Record
61%
1184-749 (1933)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.12
Value
$2.49
PnL
+$0.38
Record
64%
13150-7530 (20680)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.