Sportivo San Lorenzo vs. Cerro Porteno: O/U 5.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$1.36

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 99.3¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,593

Combined PnL+$35.27

Over2 traders

Total Value$126.85

Total Shares1,579

Combined PnL-$33.9

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 90¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$37.35	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
RN1CTR	Overavg 10¢	$155.49	$118.96	-$36.53	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
RO Rocky31<$100	Underavg 85¢	$80.1	$77.27	-$2.83	72% 1292-495 (1787)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$5.26	$7.89	+$2.63	50% 9139-9049 (18188)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 80.1¢	$3.85	$4.6	+$0.74	56% 1868-1468 (3336)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,344.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$37.35

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$155.49

Value

$118.96

PnL

-$36.53

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

Rocky31<$100

Under

Invested

$80.1

Value

$77.27

PnL

-$2.83

Record

72%

1292-495 (1787)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.26

Value

$7.89

PnL

+$2.63

Record

50%

9139-9049 (18188)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.74

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.