Will Sportivo San Lorenzo win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$18.67

Smart Money Entry

96.3¢ → 99.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,580

Combined PnL+$32.27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.16

Total Shares195

Combined PnL-$13.6

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 96¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.8	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
oieshfn345	Noavg 95.5¢	$964.94	$980.22	+$15.28	58% 1518-1121 (2639)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 99.4¢	$665.98	$663.3	-$2.68	50% 7952-8033 (15985)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 95¢	$218.5	$220.11	+$1.61	51% 18185-17517 (35702)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 88¢	$41	$46.12	+$3.03	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
RN1<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$15.64	$15.42	-$0.37	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 96¢	$5.4	$5	-$0.4	54% 5269-4412 (9681)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$2.09	$1.73	-$0.36	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$14.67	$1.43	-$13.24	50% 9139-9049 (18188)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,557.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.8

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

oieshfn345

Invested

$964.94

Value

$980.22

PnL

+$15.28

Record

58%

1518-1121 (2639)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$665.98

Value

$663.3

PnL

-$2.68

Record

50%

7952-8033 (15985)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$218.5

Value

$220.11

PnL

+$1.61

Record

51%

18185-17517 (35702)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$41

Value

$46.12

PnL

+$3.03

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

RN1<$100

Invested

$15.64

Value

$15.42

PnL

-$0.37

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

54%

5269-4412 (9681)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.36

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.67

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$13.24

Record

50%

9139-9049 (18188)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.