Will Cerro Porteno win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 89¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$272.47

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 88.7¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,663

Combined PnL-$188.11

No2 traders

Total Value$152.07

Total Shares1,319

Combined PnL-$84.36

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 76.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$83.45	58% 1518-1121 (2639)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 96¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$183.27	50% 9139-9049 (18188)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 90.7¢	$971.11	$879.16	-$91.95	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 17.8¢	$229.05	$145.8	-$83.25	51% 18185-17517 (35702)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 88.6¢	$76.83	$81.69	+$4.85	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 82.8¢	$24.85	$24.66	-$0.19	54% 5269-4412 (9681)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$8.5	$7.49	-$1.01	76% 3389-1082 (4471)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 25.4¢	$7.38	$6.27	-$1.11	50% 7952-8033 (15985)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$1,161.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$83.45

Record

58%

1518-1121 (2639)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$1,258.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$183.27

Record

50%

9139-9049 (18188)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$971.11

Value

$879.16

PnL

-$91.95

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$229.05

Value

$145.8

PnL

-$83.25

Record

51%

18185-17517 (35702)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.83

Value

$81.69

PnL

+$4.85

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.85

Value

$24.66

PnL

-$0.19

Record

54%

5269-4412 (9681)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.5

Value

$7.49

PnL

-$1.01

Record

76%

3389-1082 (4471)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$7.38

Value

$6.27

PnL

-$1.11

Record

50%

7952-8033 (15985)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.