Sportivo Ameliano vs. Club Olimpia: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 100¢ · $114 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$114.11
$6.65
93.5¢ → 99.9¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $66.42 | $71.35 | +$4.93 | 64% 869-491 (1360) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $37.59 | $39.95 | +$2.38 | 75% 2369-784 (3153) |
LO looppau<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 | 99% 6814-37 (6851) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $1.47 | $0.81 | -$0.66 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.