Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 55¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$3.9K
-$18.88
54¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Yesavg 54¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$57.38 | 55% 1297-1044 (2341) |
 us391CTR | Noavg 46¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$72.04 | 52% 1353-1269 (2622) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 44.8¢ | $129.82 | $110.45 | -$2 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $54.9 | $53.68 | -$1.22 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Yesavg 55.7¢ | $45.77 | $44.78 | -$0.99 | 57% 1457-1081 (2538) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.2 | -$0.05 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $1.08 | $1.12 | +$0.04 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
Invested
$2,065.43
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$57.38
Record
55%
1297-1044 (2341)
us391CTRInvested
$1,656.95
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$72.04
Record
52%
1353-1269 (2622)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$129.82
Value
$110.45
PnL
-$2
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$54.9
Value
$53.68
PnL
-$1.22
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$45.77
Value
$44.78
PnL
-$0.99
Record
57%
1457-1081 (2538)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$0.05
Record
55%
4838-4027 (8865)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.12
PnL
+$0.04
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.