Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 52¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$4.8K
$-2.2K
87.2¢ → 51.5¢
-41% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vacoolaaa | Yesavg 93¢ | $4.6K | $2.6K | $-2.4K | 68% 123-59 (182) |
OD odsownerCTR | Noavg 49.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$219.05 | 55% 153-127 (280) |
 gatonekki | Yesavg 43¢ | $281.99 | $337.73 | +$13.12 | 63% 22-13 (35) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.