Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 28¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$5.0K
$-1.1K
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 gatonekkiCTR | Yesavg 50.6¢ | $3.0K | $1.9K | $-1.1K | 63% 22-13 (35) |
 AllByMyseIf | Noavg 65.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$29.54 | 65% 666-355 (1021) |
OD odsowner | Noavg 65¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | -$9.1 | 55% 153-127 (280) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.