OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 61¢ · $197 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$197.32
$53.15
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
4670h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $30.18 | $82.53 | +$42.03 | 18% 3369-15469 (18838) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $30.49 | $53.9 | +$23.41 | 55% 147-120 (267) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100 | Yesavg 59.2¢ | $57.37 | $48.96 | -$8.4 | 50% 363-356 (719) |
TT tttt123CTR<$100 | Noavg 60.3¢ | $10.13 | $7.79 | -$2.33 | 72% 1527-583 (2110) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Yesavg 61.8¢ | $4.22 | $3.68 | -$1.56 | 58% 438-317 (755) |
2B9S<$100Invested
$30.18
Value
$82.53
PnL
+$42.03
Record
18%
3369-15469 (18838)
Invested
$30.49
Value
$53.9
PnL
+$23.41
Record
55%
147-120 (267)
Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100Invested
$57.37
Value
$48.96
PnL
-$8.4
Record
50%
363-356 (719)
Invested
$10.13
Value
$7.79
PnL
-$2.33
Record
72%
1527-583 (2110)
Invested
$4.22
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$1.56
Record
58%
438-317 (755)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.