Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will San Diego Wave FC win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes58¢No42¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$7.8

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes58%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$52.96

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$8.79

No4 traders

Total Value$41.1

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$0.99

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 42.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$2.04	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
└ No leg	Noavg 42.6¢	$951.19	$892.86	-$58.33
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.5¢	$501.04	$561.41	+$60.37
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 41.8¢	$250.75	$248.33	-$2.43	50% 9139-9049 (18188)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.8¢	$139.84	$140.43	+$0.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.6¢	$110.91	$107.9	-$3.01
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 61.6¢	$32.2	$38.77	+$6.57	46% 1592-1842 (3434)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$21.72	$21.24	-$0.48	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
US User7429<$100	Yesavg 60.7¢	$11.97	$14.19	+$2.22	58% 6238-4604 (10842)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$9.6	$9.6	+$0	50% 7952-8033 (15985)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Noavg 43.4¢	$8.97	$8.26	-$0.81	51% 165-161 (326)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$1.7	$2	+$0.3	63% 23323-13916 (37239)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$1,452.23

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$2.04

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

Both legs:

No$951.1942.6¢-$58.33

Yes$501.0453.5¢+$60.37

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$250.75

Value

$248.33

PnL

-$2.43

Record

50%

9139-9049 (18188)

Both legs:

No$139.8441.8¢+$0.59

Yes$110.9159.6¢-$3.01

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.2

Value

$38.77

PnL

+$6.57

Record

46%

1592-1842 (3434)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$21.72

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$0.48

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

User7429<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.97

Value

$14.19

PnL

+$2.22

Record

58%

6238-4604 (10842)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7952-8033 (15985)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$8.26

PnL

-$0.81

Record

51%

165-161 (326)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

63%

23323-13916 (37239)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.