Will San Diego Wave FC vs. Boston Legacy FC end in a draw?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$10.0K
$14.41
99¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Yesavg 99¢ | $10.0K | $10.0K | -$0 | 94% 15257-909 (16166) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $13.94 | $27.85 | +$13.91 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
US User7429<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $5.71 | $6.21 | +$0.5 | 58% 6537-4795 (11332) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.