Will Boston Legacy FC win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$167.33

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 87¢

+19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,385

Combined PnL+$167.33

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.45

Total Shares22

Combined PnL-$0

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 72.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$170.22	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$657.53	$606.62	-$50.9	50% 9139-9049 (18188)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.1¢	$426.23	$457.43	+$31.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.2¢	$231.29	$149.2	-$82.1
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 90¢	$54.86	$51.98	-$2.88	46% 1592-1842 (3434)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$3.91	$3.91	+$0	54% 1405-1190 (2595)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.54	$0.54	-$0	56% 1868-1468 (3336)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,102.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$170.22

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$657.53

Value

$606.62

PnL

-$50.9

Record

50%

9139-9049 (18188)

Both legs:

No$426.2381.1¢+$31.2

Yes$231.2920.2¢-$82.1

123987456<$100

Invested

$54.86

Value

$51.98

PnL

-$2.88

Record

46%

1592-1842 (3434)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1405-1190 (2595)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.