Will Stroemmen IF win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.4K
-$375.54
88.3¢ → 88.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 87.6¢ | $1.2K | $861.51 | -$375.3 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
 RN1 | Noavg 90¢ | $391.23 | $391.23 | +$0 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90¢ | $156.15 | $156.15 | +$0 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $2.07 | $1.83 | -$0.24 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.22 | $0.22 | +$0 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
Invested
$1,236.81
Value
$861.51
PnL
-$375.3
Record
52%
16269-14809 (31078)
RN1Invested
$391.23
Value
$391.23
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
VeryLucky888Invested
$156.15
Value
$156.15
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.07
Value
$1.83
PnL
-$0.24
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.22
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
4838-4027 (8865)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.