Spread: Stroemsgodset IF (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Stroemsgodset IF (33%) · Stroemsgodset IF at 77¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
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Neutral
Stroemsgodset IF
6
Stroemsgodset IF 33%
$1.5K
-$16.96
55.6¢ → 77¢
+38% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralStroemsgodset IF at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Stroemsgodset IFavg 55.8¢ | $465.09 | $491.41 | +$26.32 | 59% 13855-9624 (23479) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Stroemsgodset IFavg 55.4¢ | $363.28 | $380.25 | +$3.86 | 55% 1297-1043 (2340) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Stroemmen IFavg 44.7¢ | $337.67 | $309.86 | -$27.8 | 52% 16262-14802 (31064) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Stroemmen IFavg 42.1¢ | $219.69 | $214.02 | -$5.67 | 68% 31050-14947 (45997) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Stroemmen IFavg 49¢ | $115.35 | $101.71 | -$13.64 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Stroemmen IFavg 42¢ | $1.05 | $1.03 | -$0.03 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
Invested
$465.09
Value
$491.41
PnL
+$26.32
Record
59%
13855-9624 (23479)
Invested
$363.28
Value
$380.25
PnL
+$3.86
Record
55%
1297-1043 (2340)
Invested
$337.67
Value
$309.86
PnL
-$27.8
Record
52%
16262-14802 (31064)
Invested
$219.69
Value
$214.02
PnL
-$5.67
Record
68%
31050-14947 (45997)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$115.35
Value
$101.71
PnL
-$13.64
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$0.03
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.