Will Stroemsgodset IF win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 51¢ · $787 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$787.32
-$104.96
36.8¢ → 51¢
+39% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 33.7¢ | $460.77 | $327.7 | -$133.08 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 44.9¢ | $227.85 | $251.41 | +$23.56 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $98.95 | $99.94 | +$0.99 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 77¢ | $115.5 | $77.41 | -$0.19 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 64.4¢ | $20.41 | $23.44 | +$3.03 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 44.7¢ | $6.7 | $7.43 | +$0.73 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
Invested
$460.77
Value
$327.7
PnL
-$133.08
Record
52%
16269-14809 (31078)
Invested
$227.85
Value
$251.41
PnL
+$23.56
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$98.95
Value
$99.94
PnL
+$0.99
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$115.5
Value
$77.41
PnL
-$0.19
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$20.41
Value
$23.44
PnL
+$3.03
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$7.43
PnL
+$0.73
Record
55%
4838-4027 (8865)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.