Stroemmen IF vs. Stroemsgodset IF: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
2 arb excluded
$5.7K
-$483.85
64.5¢ → 100¢
+55% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 47.3¢ | $3.3K | $3.8K | +$572.99 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.3¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$125.66 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 34.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.5K | +$447.33 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 64.4¢ | $2.1K | $1.6K | -$472.76 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $145.28 | $189.15 | +$43.87 | 50% 7758-7812 (15570) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $117.97 | $125.5 | +$7.53 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 21.5¢ | $27.31 | $63.65 | +$36.34 | |
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $56.84 | $53.62 | -$3.22 | 59% 2262-1574 (3836) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $10 | -$8.2 | 63% 22561-13320 (35881) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $3.5 | $3.83 | +$0.33 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$3,251.13
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$572.99
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,119.14
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$472.76
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
Invested
$145.28
Value
$189.15
PnL
+$43.87
Record
50%
7758-7812 (15570)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.84
Value
$53.62
PnL
-$3.22
Record
59%
2262-1574 (3836)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$10
PnL
-$8.2
Record
63%
22561-13320 (35881)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.83
PnL
+$0.33
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.