Moss FK vs. Aasane Fotball: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.1K
$2.39
50.8¢ → 53.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 48.9¢ | $482.18 | $506.85 | +$24.67 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 50.7¢ | $487.48 | $461.2 | -$26.28 | 59% 13747-9558 (23305) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 50¢ | $159.53 | $91.4 | +$3.77 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $24.81 | $25.04 | +$0.23 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $0.92 | $0.92 | -$0 | 50% 7629-7782 (15411) |
Invested
$482.18
Value
$506.85
PnL
+$24.67
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$487.48
Value
$461.2
PnL
-$26.28
Record
59%
13747-9558 (23305)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$159.53
Value
$91.4
PnL
+$3.77
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$24.81
Value
$25.04
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$0.92
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
7629-7782 (15411)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.