Will FK Haugesund win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

31.4¢ → 82¢

+161% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,860

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$404.35

Total Shares652

Combined PnL-$67.92

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 31.4¢	$931.98	$2.1K	+$1.2K	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 82¢	$464.86	$392.15	-$72.72	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 38.5¢	$12.73	$12.89	+$0.16	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$7.4	$12.2	+$4.8	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 31¢	$1.24	$1.56	+$0.32	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$931.98

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$464.86

Value

$392.15

PnL

-$72.72

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$12.73

Value

$12.89

PnL

+$0.16

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.4

Value

$12.2

PnL

+$4.8

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.