Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 98¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$705.53

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 98¢

+35% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,838

Combined PnL+$710.17

No4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,930

Combined PnL-$4.64

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 69.4¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$733.4	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
LZ lzh1CTR	Noavg 35¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	43% 409-543 (952)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 72.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$53.3	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
RN1	Yesavg 78¢	$592.02	$595.82	+$3.8	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
FO foooool	Yesavg 79.7¢	$146.6	$164.11	+$17.52	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 91¢	$135.79	$143.58	+$7.78	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 37¢	$82.16	$80.35	-$3.28	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
└ No leg	Noavg 37¢	$44.4	$42	-$2.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64¢	$37.76	$38.35	-$0.89
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$48.35	$49.77	+$1.42	75% 6118-2030 (8148)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$7.98	$8.06	+$0.08	72% 1256-477 (1733)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 69.5¢	$6.95	$7.85	+$0.9	55% 4844-4028 (8872)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 37.7¢	$13.98	$7.24	-$6.74	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.88	+$0.68	58% 16134-11777 (27911)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,785.48

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$733.4

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

lzh1CTR

Invested

$1,311.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

409-543 (952)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$1,229.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$53.3

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$592.02

Value

$595.82

PnL

+$3.8

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$146.6

Value

$164.11

PnL

+$17.52

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$135.79

Value

$143.58

PnL

+$7.78

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$82.16

Value

$80.35

PnL

-$3.28

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

Both legs:

No$44.437¢-$2.4

Yes$37.7664¢-$0.89

torta.techCTR<$100

Invested

$48.35

Value

$49.77

PnL

+$1.42

Record

75%

6118-2030 (8148)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.98

Value

$8.06

PnL

+$0.08

Record

72%

1256-477 (1733)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.95

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$0.9

Record

55%

4844-4028 (8872)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$13.98

Value

$7.24

PnL

-$6.74

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.68

Record

58%

16134-11777 (27911)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.