Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

$837.22

Smart Money Entry

93.9¢ → 99.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares16,640

Combined PnL+$901.56

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.8

Total Shares1,201

Combined PnL-$64.34

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 93.9¢	$15.6K	$16.5K	+$895.87	93% 714-53 (767)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 83¢	$29.05	$32.55	+$5.37	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$46.98	$5.09	-$41.89	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.97	+$0.32	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$25.17	$2.71	-$22.45	51% 6565-6327 (12892)

Momo63

Invested

$15,587.98

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$895.87

Record

93%

714-53 (767)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$29.05

Value

$32.55

PnL

+$5.37

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.98

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$41.89

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.32

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.17

Value

$2.71

PnL

-$22.45

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.