Viking FK vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 5.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$2.6K
-$58.29
89.7¢ → 99¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 89.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$180.97 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
FO foooool | Underavg 93¢ | $149.23 | $131.61 | -$17.83 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 10.1¢ | $322.24 | $95.86 | -$226.38 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $24.93 | $24.93 | +$0 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 7¢ | $3.15 | $8.1 | +$4.95 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
Invested
$2,159.62
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$180.97
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$149.23
Value
$131.61
PnL
-$17.83
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
Invested
$322.24
Value
$95.86
PnL
-$226.38
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$24.93
Value
$24.93
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$4.95
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.