Viking FK vs. Tromsø IL: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 55¢ · $278 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$277.55
-$182.96
96.6¢ → 55¢
-43% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Overavg 99¢ | $387.4 | $215.22 | -$172.18 | 95% 14005-802 (14807) |
SL slimjoeCTR<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $61.37 | $52.11 | -$9.26 | 52% 5353-4968 (10321) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $11.74 | $10.22 | -$1.52 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.