Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Viking FK vs. Tromsø IL: Both Teams to Score
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 39¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$89.83
37.1¢ → 38.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Noavg 37¢ | $500 | $540.54 | +$33.78 | 59% 3052-2105 (5157) |
NO NotradecopyCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $500 | $540.54 | +$40.54 | 60% 2990-2000 (4990) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $333.8 | $277.52 | +$14.02 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37¢ | $148.69 | $154.52 | +$11.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60¢ | $120 | $123 | +$3 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 38.7¢ | $165.71 | $169.06 | +$3.35 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Noavg 36¢ | $109.16 | $121.28 | +$12.13 | 47% 1968-2204 (4172) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $1.98 | +$0.03 | 50% 8802-8735 (17537) |
Invested
$500
Value
$540.54
PnL
+$33.78
Record
59%
3052-2105 (5157)
Invested
$500
Value
$540.54
PnL
+$40.54
Record
60%
2990-2000 (4990)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$333.8
Value
$277.52
PnL
+$14.02
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Both legs:
Invested
$165.71
Value
$169.06
PnL
+$3.35
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Invested
$109.16
Value
$121.28
PnL
+$12.13
Record
47%
1968-2204 (4172)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
8802-8735 (17537)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.