Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 65¢ · $460 held · ended Oct 25

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$460.46

Combined PnL

-$37.74

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 65¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$324.39

Total Shares373

Combined PnL+$40.63

Under3 traders

Total Value$136.08

Total Shares800

Combined PnL-$78.37

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 69.3¢	$206.55	$242.7	+$36.15	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 26¢	$156.49	$102.33	-$54.16	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 78.6¢	$74.65	$78.85	+$4.2	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 28.8¢	$46.21	$27.28	-$18.93	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 30.9¢	$11.74	$6.46	-$5.28	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 69¢	$2.56	$2.84	+$0.28	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$206.55

Value

$242.7

PnL

+$36.15

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$156.49

Value

$102.33

PnL

-$54.16

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$74.65

Value

$78.85

PnL

+$4.2

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.21

Value

$27.28

PnL

-$18.93

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.74

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$5.28

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.