Spread: Sarpsborg 08 FF (-2.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Aalesunds FK (33%) · Aalesunds FK at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Aalesunds FK
6
Aalesunds FK 33%
$2.6K
-$12.82
88.4¢ → 94.5¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAalesunds FK at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Aalesunds FKavg 87.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$45.51 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
FO foooool | Aalesunds FKavg 91.8¢ | $300 | $281.05 | -$18.95 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Sarpsborg 08 FFavg 12¢ | $197 | $229.83 | +$32.83 | 52% 16312-14865 (31177) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Sarpsborg 08 FFavg 5¢ | $10.53 | $29.47 | +$18.95 | 50% 8825-8766 (17591) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Sarpsborg 08 FFavg 14¢ | $16.28 | $16.28 | +$0 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Sarpsborg 08 FFavg 15¢ | $2.11 | $1.97 | -$0.14 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$2,073.39
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$45.51
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$300
Value
$281.05
PnL
-$18.95
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
Invested
$197
Value
$229.83
PnL
+$32.83
Record
52%
16312-14865 (31177)
Invested
$10.53
Value
$29.47
PnL
+$18.95
Record
50%
8825-8766 (17591)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$16.28
Value
$16.28
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.11
Value
$1.97
PnL
-$0.14
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.