Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Sarpsborg 08 FF (67%) · Sarpsborg 08 FF at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
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Neutral
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%
$3.2K
-$35.45
96.5¢ → 95.2¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSarpsborg 08 FF at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Sarpsborg 08 FFavg 96.8¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$44.32 | 52% 16312-14865 (31177) |
FO foooool | Sarpsborg 08 FFavg 95.2¢ | $600 | $600.02 | +$0.02 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Aalesunds FKavg 0.5¢ | $1.03 | $9.89 | +$8.86 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.