Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 43¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$35.66

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 43¢

-17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,662

Combined PnL+$373.88

Yes4 traders

Total Value$557.08

Total Shares1,857

Combined PnL-$409.54

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 47.4¢	$588.84	$868.69	+$279.84	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 52.7¢	$749.2	$426.85	-$322.36	59% 13959-9681 (23640)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$275.84	$217.5	-$53.96	57% 1460-1082 (2542)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$210.84	$126.5	-$78.01
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$65	$91	+$24.05
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 47.9¢	$102.84	$150.31	+$47.48	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 50.8¢	$177.28	$126.49	-$50.79	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.8¢	$125	$73.85	-$51.15
└ No leg	Noavg 69.5¢	$52.28	$52.64	+$0.36
BE Betziko	Noavg 46.5¢	$76.8	$115.5	+$38.7	55% 4855-4037 (8892)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 49.7¢	$162.39	$97.94	-$64.45	52% 16312-14865 (31177)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$20.98	$28.84	+$7.86	57% 1506-1114 (2620)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$43.83	$26.3	-$17.53	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$11.2	$6	-$5.2	55% 43612-35879 (79491)

SnakeBall

Invested

$588.84

Value

$868.69

PnL

+$279.84

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$749.2

Value

$426.85

PnL

-$322.36

Record

59%

13959-9681 (23640)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$275.84

Value

$217.5

PnL

-$53.96

Record

57%

1460-1082 (2542)

Both legs:

Yes$210.8450¢-$78.01

No$6550¢+$24.05

UpTheBlues

Invested

$102.84

Value

$150.31

PnL

+$47.48

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$177.28

Value

$126.49

PnL

-$50.79

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

Both legs:

Yes$12550.8¢-$51.15

No$52.2869.5¢+$0.36

Betziko

Invested

$76.8

Value

$115.5

PnL

+$38.7

Record

55%

4855-4037 (8892)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$162.39

Value

$97.94

PnL

-$64.45

Record

52%

16312-14865 (31177)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$20.98

Value

$28.84

PnL

+$7.86

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.83

Value

$26.3

PnL

-$17.53

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.2

Value

PnL

-$5.2

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.