Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Aalesunds FK end in a draw?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 73¢ · $786 held · ended Oct 25

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$786.45

Combined PnL

$18.12

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 72.5¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$372.1

Total Shares483

Combined PnL+$0.25

Yes5 traders

Total Value$414.35

Total Shares1,657

Combined PnL+$17.87

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391	Noavg 77¢	$368.25	$368.25	+$0	52% 1359-1270 (2629)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 22¢	$198.58	$206.1	+$18.15	57% 1460-1082 (2542)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 22.7¢	$99.91	$101.31	+$1.4	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$81.72	$80.07	-$1.65	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$26.56	$26.56	-$0	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.85	+$0.25	55% 4855-4037 (8892)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$0.35	$0.31	-$0.04	55% 43612-35879 (79491)

us391

Invested

$368.25

Value

$368.25

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1359-1270 (2629)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$198.58

Value

$206.1

PnL

+$18.15

Record

57%

1460-1082 (2542)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$99.91

Value

$101.31

PnL

+$1.4

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.72

Value

$80.07

PnL

-$1.65

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.56

Value

$26.56

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

4855-4037 (8892)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$0.04

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.