Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Aalesunds FK: Both Teams to Score

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 89¢ · $729 held · ended Oct 25

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$728.78

Combined PnL

-$24.96

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 89¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$632.77

Total Shares931

Combined PnL-$33.43

No1 trader

Total Value$96.01

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$8.46

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Yesavg 70.8¢	$444.76	$426.87	-$17.89	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
RN1	Yesavg 72¢	$206.46	$194.99	-$12.9	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 30¢	$173.74	$96.01	+$8.46	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$11.48	$8.87	-$2.61	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$2.07	$2.04	-$0.03	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$444.76

Value

$426.87

PnL

-$17.89

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$206.46

Value

$194.99

PnL

-$12.9

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$173.74

Value

$96.01

PnL

+$8.46

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.48

Value

$8.87

PnL

-$2.61

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.