Molde FK vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$27.78

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 68¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,122

Combined PnL-$28.78

Under1 trader

Total Value$16

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$1

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b	Overavg 68.7¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$22.5	55% 163-132 (295)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 98¢	$60.26	$62.04	+$1.78	75% 2398-790 (3188)
RN1<$100	Overavg 94¢	$29.14	$21.08	-$8.06	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$15	$16	+$1	54% 13985-11704 (25689)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b

Over

Invested

$2,062.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$22.5

Record

55%

163-132 (295)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$60.26

Value

$62.04

PnL

+$1.78

Record

75%

2398-790 (3188)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$29.14

Value

$21.08

PnL

-$8.06

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$16

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.