Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-10-25?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 95¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$37.25

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares8,000

Combined PnL+$0

Yes3 traders

Total Value$63.73

Total Shares927

Combined PnL-$37.25

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 95¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$0	93% 728-56 (784)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$50.03	$53.87	+$3.84	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$50	$9.62	-$40.38	51% 6747-6475 (13222)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.25	-$0.7	58% 16221-11850 (28071)

Momo63

Invested

$7,600

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

93%

728-56 (784)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.03

Value

$53.87

PnL

+$3.84

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$9.62

PnL

-$40.38

Record

51%

6747-6475 (13222)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.7

Record

58%

16221-11850 (28071)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.