Lillestrøm SK vs. SK Brann: O/U 1.5
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 83¢ · $876 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
2
Over 50%
2 arb excluded
$875.82
-$40.32
Research grade
NeutralOver at 83%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 88¢ | $603.65 | $569.36 | -$34.3 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 24.2¢ | $201.07 | $176.43 | -$24.64 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 83.5¢ | $99.78 | $105.16 | +$5.38 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 24.2¢ | $101.29 | $71.27 | -$30.02 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 18.2¢ | $90.23 | $84.21 | -$6.02 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $49.27 | $45.81 | -$3.46 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $24.9 | -$5.07 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 15.7¢ | $19.3 | $20.91 | +$1.61 |
RN1Invested
$603.65
Value
$569.36
PnL
-$34.3
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$201.07
Value
$176.43
PnL
-$24.64
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.23
Value
$84.21
PnL
-$6.02
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$49.27
Value
$45.81
PnL
-$3.46
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.