Lillestrøm SK vs. SK Brann: Both Teams to Score

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 57¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes57¢No43¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$111.51

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 57¢

-15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$666.26

Total Shares1,549

Combined PnL+$202.61

Yes2 traders

Total Value$518.54

Total Shares910

Combined PnL-$91.11

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 29.9¢	$458.61	$659.81	+$201.2	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
FO foooool	Yesavg 67¢	$573.57	$488	-$85.56	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 67.3¢	$36.09	$30.54	-$5.54	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 33.6¢	$5.04	$6.45	+$1.41	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$458.61

Value

$659.81

PnL

+$201.2

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$573.57

Value

$488

PnL

-$85.56

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.09

Value

$30.54

PnL

-$5.54

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$1.41

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.