Will SK Brann win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$116.79

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 84.5¢

+43% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$999.8

Total Shares1,770

Combined PnL-$57.43

Yes4 traders

Total Value$550

Total Shares1,250

Combined PnL-$59.37

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO torta.tech	Noavg 57¢	$688.52	$676.48	-$12.04	75% 6132-2031 (8163)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 42.1¢	$353.74	$369.93	+$16.19	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
FO foooool	Noavg 63.5¢	$267.64	$237.42	-$30.22	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 42.9¢	$165.57	$169.73	-$80.71	57% 1460-1082 (2542)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 66¢	$54.11	$45.91	-$8.2	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 66.9¢	$24.58	$20.58	-$4	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$22.38	$19.41	-$2.97	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$8.8	+$4.8	50% 7770-7819 (15589)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.19	$1.54	+$0.35	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

torta.tech

Invested

$688.52

Value

$676.48

PnL

-$12.04

Record

75%

6132-2031 (8163)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$353.74

Value

$369.93

PnL

+$16.19

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

foooool

Invested

$267.64

Value

$237.42

PnL

-$30.22

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$165.57

Value

$169.73

PnL

-$80.71

Record

57%

1460-1082 (2542)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$54.11

Value

$45.91

PnL

-$8.2

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$24.58

Value

$20.58

PnL

-$4

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$22.38

Value

$19.41

PnL

-$2.97

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$4.8

Record

50%

7770-7819 (15589)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.35

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.